I’ve been home from Thailand for about a week now, and quite frankly I’m miserable being back in the States. On the flipside, watching MMA events is much, much easier over here, and there’s a big one coming up this weekend in the form of UFC 111, coming to you straight from beautiful Newark, New Jersey.
Since I have nothing better to do, I’m going to take a look at the main card and give you some quick thoughts. I don’t suggest putting too much stock in them because I’ve never won a dime betting on MMA. I guess that’s one of the most beautiful aspects of MMA: anything can happen.
Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek
Bocek is a hell of a grappler, and while he’s managed to tap a number of his opponents within the first round, he’s also been submitted by Mac Danzig. Jim Miller, on the other hand, is a well-rounded fighter who has managed his fair share of submissions as well. Miller’s only loses come by way of decision, so I don’t expect him to fall victim to Bocek’s sharp jiu-jitsu. I think Miller ends up submitting or stopping Bocek in the 2nd or 3rd.
Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves
For as respected as Fitch as, I can’t help but find him terminally boring. Obviously he’s got a very impressive record and he’s gone toe-to-toe with some top welterweights, but his style leaves a lot to be desired, at least as someone watching at home, eating pizza and drinking beer. Alves, on the other hand, can be extremely exciting, especially when he’s rattling the brainstems of guys like Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan.
The thing is that these two have met before back in 2006, when Fitch walked away with the win after levelling “The Pitbull” with an upkick. Unfortunately, I think he’s looking at a repeat here as Fitch’s style has not evolved since that first meeting. I’m not sure how this one will end though, as Fitch has shown he has a solid chin, but I do see Alves coming out on top.
Jake Ellenberger vs. Ben Saunders
Did you know that Ben Saunders nickname is “Killa B?” Oof. If I ever get back into fighting, I think I’d like my nickname to be “The Gentleman,” and I’ll come to the ring with a top hat and monocle… all while wearing Vale Tudo shorts.
Anyway, I don’t know much about Ellenberger other than the fact that he’s a relative newcomer to the UFC and most of his previous wins have been at the expense of guys I’ve never heard of. That certainly doesn’t mean he’s no good, but it’s hard for at least me to gauge what kind of fighter he is, although many of his wins come by way of knockout or TKO. One thing that is obvious is that he’s giving up a few inches in height to a guy who has shown he knows his way around a Thai clinch and can turn your lights off (or turn you into the Elephant Man) with a few well placed knees to the head. This prediction is based solely on personal preference rather than any sort of legitimate data, but I’m going to go with Saunders. Why not?
Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin
It’s taking me an awfully long time to hop aboard the Carwin hype train, and while noone can deny the excitement in knocking out most of his opponent’s out in the first round (the others were submitted, still in the first round,) he’s never faced anyone nearly as well-rounded as Frank Mir. Granted he knocked out Gonzaga after a scary minute or so, but is knocking out Gonzaga really a big deal these days? Anyway, as unlikable as the guy is, Frank Mir is an extremely talented and well-rounded fighter whose standup has improved leaps and bounds — so much so that you almost forget how good he is on the ground. Mir’s been knocked stupid a few times, but usually after being put into inferior positions, which I don’t think will happen with Carwin. As for Mir’s alleged obsession with Brock Lesnar, I don’t even think it’s a factor here. And even if it were, no disrespect to Carwin intended, I don’t think it would matter; Frank Mir on auto-pilot would most likely still beat Carwin. Mir is just too experienced and too well-rounded.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy
In the interest of full disclosure, GSP is my favorite fighter. Sakuraba will most likely always be my favorite fighter of all-time, but as far as active, legitimate competition goes, GSP is head and shoulders above anyone else in the cage or the ring at this time. So yeah, I’m a little biased. Either way, I don’t think it’s hard to see that GSP is far and away a much better athlete and fighter than Dan Hardy is or will be for quite some time. Anywhere this fight goes — on the feet, on the mat, in the air, in space, etc. — GSP has the advantage. What Dan Hardy does have going for him is a m0uth; the UFC hype train, who can make people believe Hardy has a chance, mostly based on Serra’s win over GSP; and above-average power in his sloppy hands. As for that highly-exaggerated power, sure the guy can hit hard and has rattled plenty of guys who were baited into ugly exchanges, but the idea that this guy can explode brains with every punch is ridiculous; an idea invented by Hardy and trumped-up by the UFC in order to make an extremely lopsided fight seem appealing. Hardy has never faced anyone half as good as GSP. After failing to finish guys like Mike Swick and Marcus Davis in his last two fights, what makes him think he’s got a snowball’s chance in beating GSP, a guy who made former welterweight kingpin Matt Hughes look like a guy they pulled out of the stands, not once but twice? Obviously, as stated earlier, anything can happen in MMA, but I’ll eat my hat (my delicious, ham-flavored hat) if GSP doesn’t win this one in any fashion he chooses.
Feel free to come back here on Monday and bust my balls if I happen to be wrong about any of these, especially the main event.
